Match Result
Italy vs Belgium brings together two major European nations at the start of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League. The match took place at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, with Roberto Mancini beginning his second spell as Italy manager and Mark van Bommel taking charge of Belgium for the first time.
Both teams are entering a new managerial era after changes in the dugout. Italy are rebuilding after missing the 2026 World Cup, while Belgium are also introducing younger players around experienced figures such as Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku.
In this blog, we cover the Italy vs Belgium prediction, recent form, team news, expected lineups, head-to-head records and betting markets to consider before kick-off. Readers researching UEFA Nations League betting can also use the latest team information, UEFA Nations League odds and Football odds to understand the available markets.
Key Points to Know Before Italy vs Belgium
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Italy vs Belgium: Recent Meetings and H2H History
Italy and Belgium have a long international history, with their recent meetings providing useful context ahead of their UEFA Nations League fixture. The latest 10 encounters include UEFA Nations League, UEFA European Championship and friendly matches.
| Date | Competition | Match | Result |
| November 14, 2024 | UEFA Nations League | Belgium vs Italy | Belgium 0–1 Italy |
| October 10, 2024 | UEFA Nations League | Italy vs Belgium | Italy 2–2 Belgium |
| October 10, 2021 | UEFA Nations League | Italy vs Belgium | Italy 2–1 Belgium |
| July 2, 2021 | UEFA Euro 2020 | Belgium vs Italy | Belgium 1–2 Italy |
| June 13, 2016 | UEFA Euro 2016 | Belgium vs Italy | Belgium 0–2 Italy |
| November 13, 2015 | International Friendly | Belgium vs Italy | Belgium 3–1 Italy |
| May 30, 2008 | International Friendly | Italy vs Belgium | Italy 3–1 Belgium |
| June 14, 2000 | UEFA Euro 2000 | Italy vs Belgium | Italy 2–0 Belgium |
| November 13, 1999 | International Friendly | Italy vs Belgium | Italy 1–3 Belgium |
| May 29, 1996 | International Friendly | Italy vs Belgium | Italy 2–2 Belgium |
Italy have won six of these 10 meetings, while Belgium have recorded two victories and the other two matches ended in draws. Italy are also unbeaten in the last five meetings, recording four wins and one draw.
The recent record is particularly relevant for UEFA Nations League betting, as the latest results provide historical context when comparing the current UEFA Nations League odds and other Football odds markets.
Italy Before Kick-Off: Squad News, Form and Key Players
Italy begin the new UEFA Nations League campaign under Roberto Mancini, who has returned for a second spell as national-team head coach. Mancini’s appointment comes after Italy missed the 2026 World Cup following a penalty-shootout defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the qualifying playoffs.
Mancini has already begun reshaping the squad. His first expanded squad contains several new faces, including nine players receiving their first senior call-ups. The selection reflects an effort to introduce younger players while retaining established figures such as Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali.
Donnarumma is expected to captain the side, while Pio Esposito is among the attacking players attracting attention after scoring five goals in his first nine international appearances.
Last Match Performance
Italy’s recent six-match sequence across competitions is W-W-D-W-L-W. During that period, they scored eight goals and conceded five, while keeping four clean sheets.
Their recent results include 1-0 victories over Greece and Luxembourg, a 1-1 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina, a 2-0 win over Northern Ireland and a 2-0 defeat to Norway. The results show a team capable of producing defensive performances while also adapting to a changing squad.
Italy’s most recent competitive campaign ended with the World Cup qualifying playoff defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina. The arrival of Mancini therefore gives the Azzurri an opportunity to begin a new cycle at home.
Next Match: Key Players & Expected XI
Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma is expected to start in goal and captain Italy. His experience will be particularly important with several younger players around him.
Defenders: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Gianluca Mancini, Giorgio Scalvini and Riccardo Calafiori are among the expected defensive options. Alessandro Bastoni is suspended, while Federico Dimarco is unavailable through injury.
Midfielders: Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali and Davide Frattesi are expected to provide the midfield combination. Their ability to control possession and support the attack could be important against Belgium’s experienced midfield.
Forwards: Nicolò Zaniolo, Francesco Pio Esposito and Giacomo Raspadori are among the expected attacking options. Moise Kean and other forwards remain alternatives for Mancini.
Captain and leader: Gianluigi Donnarumma is expected to lead Italy and provide experience during Mancini’s second spell.
Expected Italy XI – 4-3-3:
Gianluigi Donnarumma; Michael Kayode, Gianluca Mancini, Giorgio Scalvini, Riccardo Calafiori; Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali, Davide Frattesi; Nicolò Zaniolo, Francesco Pio Esposito, Giacomo Raspadori.
Alessandro Bastoni is suspended, while Federico Dimarco and Bryan Cristante are among the players unavailable through injury. The final XI should be confirmed when the official team sheets are released.
Belgium’s New Era: Squad, Form and Key Players
Belgium begin a new chapter under Mark van Bommel, who replaced Rudi Garcia as national-team head coach. Van Bommel’s first competitive assignment comes away against Italy, giving him an immediate test against one of Belgium’s recent opponents in the Nations League.
Belgium continue to combine experienced players with younger options. Kevin De Bruyne remains a key figure in midfield, while Romelu Lukaku provides experience in attack.
Younger players such as Mika Godts, Romeo Lavia and Malick Fofana also form part of the changing Belgian squad. Godts arrives after finishing as the second-highest scorer in the Eredivisie last season.
Last Match Performance
Belgium’s last six matches have produced one defeat, three draws and two wins. Across that sequence, they scored 13 goals and conceded seven.
Their recent World Cup results included a 5-1 win over New Zealand, a 2-2 draw with Senegal, a 4-1 victory over the United States and a 1-2 defeat to Spain.
The attacking numbers provide an important part of the Belgium profile heading into Rome. They have scored regularly but have also conceded in several recent matches, which could make the defensive structure under Van Bommel an important storyline.
Next Match: Key Players & Expected XI
Goalkeeper: Senne Lammens is expected to start following the absence of Thibaut Courtois and Andre Onana.
Defenders: Timothy Castagne, Koni De Winter, Arthur Theate and Maxim De Cuyper are among the expected defensive options.
Midfielders: Youri Tielemans and Romeo Lavia could operate in central midfield, with Lavia providing energy and Tielemans offering experience.
Attacking midfielders: Dodi Lukebakio and Mika Godts are expected to provide width, while Kevin De Bruyne could operate centrally behind the striker.
Forward: Romelu Lukaku remains one of Belgium’s main attacking options and is expected to lead the line.
Captain and leader: Youri Tielemans is expected to wear the armband, while De Bruyne remains one of the team’s most experienced players.
Expected Belgium XI – 4-2-3-1:
Senne Lammens; Timothy Castagne, Koni De Winter, Arthur Theate, Maxim De Cuyper; Youri Tielemans, Romeo Lavia; Dodi Lukebakio, Kevin De Bruyne, Mika Godts; Romelu Lukaku.
Leandro Trossard is unavailable, while Jeremy Doku and Thibaut Courtois are also absent from the squad. The final lineup remains subject to confirmation.
Italy vs Belgium: Match Preview and Prediction
The Italy vs Belgium prediction considers recent form, home advantage, attacking output, team selection and the teams’ latest head-to-head meetings. Italy have won four of their last six matches, while Belgium have scored 13 goals across the same number of games.
However, both nations are entering a new managerial era. Roberto Mancini is beginning another spell with Italy, while Mark van Bommel takes charge of Belgium, making tactical approach and player combinations important factors ahead of kick-off.
These factors are also relevant when assessing Football odds, as market prices can reflect recent results, home advantage, attacking trends and the uncertainty surrounding new coaching setups.
Based on Recent Team Performance
Both teams arrive with encouraging results, although their recent performances highlight different strengths.
- Italy form: Four wins, one draw and one defeat across their last six matches.
- Belgium form: Two wins, three draws and one defeat across their last six matches.
- Attacking output: Belgium have scored 13 goals in their last six matches, compared with eight for Italy.
- Key factor: Italy’s home advantage and stronger recent H2H record are balanced by Belgium’s higher recent goal output.
Italy’s recent results suggest they can be difficult to beat at home, while Belgium’s scoring record highlights their ability to create attacking opportunities. The contrasting profiles make the match difficult to separate.
Based on Their Previous Meetings
The recent head-to-head record gives Italy an advantage going into this fixture.
- Recent H2H: Italy have won four of their last five meetings with Belgium.
- Latest meeting: Italy recorded a 1-0 victory in Belgium in November 2024.
- Previous meeting in Rome: The teams played out a 2-2 draw in October 2024.
- Recent trend: Italy have generally had the stronger results across their latest encounters.
The H2H record does not guarantee a repeat result, particularly with both teams operating under new managers. However, it provides useful historical context alongside current form and team news.
Italy vs Belgium Prediction: 1-1 Draw
The overall picture points toward a closely contested match at the Stadio Olimpico. Italy have the benefit of home advantage and a strong recent record against Belgium, while Belgium enter the fixture with the better recent scoring numbers.
A 1-1 draw reflects the balance between Italy’s home advantage and defensive record and Belgium’s attacking output. The managerial changes on both sides also add an element of uncertainty, making a narrow margin difficult to establish.
For readers comparing Football odds, the draw, Both Teams to Score and total-goals markets provide different ways to interpret the same match analysis.
Italy vs Belgium: Best Markets to Watch
The 1-1 prediction points toward a competitive match in which both Italy and Belgium have opportunities to score. Looking at the individual markets can help explain how the predicted outcome translates into different betting options. Understanding these markets is also important when learning how to bet on football, as each one focuses on a different aspect of the fixture.
Draw – Match Result
The draw is the match-result market that directly reflects the 1-1 prediction. Italy have the stronger recent head-to-head record and home advantage, but Belgium’s recent attacking output could help them stay competitive throughout the match.
Both Teams to Score – Match Goals
Both Teams to Score aligns closely with the predicted 1-1 result. Belgium have scored 13 goals across their last six matches, while Italy have also produced goals during their recent run.
The teams drew 2-2 in their previous meeting in Rome, although Italy won the return fixture 1-0 in Belgium. These results suggest that both scoring and defensive resilience could be relevant factors.
Under 2.5 Goals – Total Goals
Under 2.5 goals is another market to consider alongside the predicted draw. Five of Italy’s last six matches have finished below the 2.5-goal line according to the current analysis, although Belgium’s recent scoring record presents a different trend.
Readers comparing UEFA Nations League odds should check the latest totals before kick-off, as prices can change when confirmed lineups and team news become available.
Italy – Francesco Pio Esposito to Score
Francesco Pio Esposito is one of the emerging attacking options in Roberto Mancini’s Italy squad. UEFA notes that the Inter forward has scored five goals in nine appearances for the national team.
If selected to lead the line, his central position could give him opportunities to get into goalscoring positions and provide Italy with a focal point in attack.
Belgium – Romelu Lukaku to Score
Romelu Lukaku remains an experienced attacking option for Belgium and is expected to lead the forward line. His physical presence and ability to hold up play could create opportunities against Italy’s central defenders, particularly when Belgium attack through crosses and transitions.
Belgium – Kevin De Bruyne to Score or Assist
Kevin De Bruyne remains one of Belgium’s most experienced creative players. His ability to deliver through balls, create chances from deeper positions and contribute from set pieces makes him an important attacking option behind Lukaku.
A score-or-assist market reflects his potential influence without relying solely on him to finish chances himself.
Which Bet Type Fits Each Prediction?
| Prediction | Relevant Bet Type | Team/Player |
| 1-1 draw | Match result | Draw |
| Both teams score | Goals market | Italy & Belgium |
| Low-scoring match | Total goals | Under 2.5 goals |
| Italy attacking threat | Anytime scorer | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| Belgium central striker | Anytime scorer | Romelu Lukaku |
| Belgium creative threat | Score or assist | Kevin De Bruyne |
Odds and player markets can change before kick-off, particularly once the official starting lineups are confirmed. Anyone learning how to bet on football should check the latest team news, market conditions and Football odds before making a decision.
What Should You Know Before Italy vs Belgium?
Italy and Belgium begin new managerial eras, making team selection and tactical changes key factors in Rome.
For the latest team news, confirmed lineups, statistics and UEFA Nations League odds, check updates bhow to bet on footballhow to bet on football
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Disclaimer
This article is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions, odds, statistics and team news can change and do not guarantee any result. Betting involves financial risk. Always check the latest information, follow local gambling laws and only participate within limits you can afford to lose.
