How Often Do Premier League Favourites Win? Win Rates, Odds & Historical Data

Being the favourite does not guarantee a Premier League win. Bookmakers may price one team shorter because of its squad strength, recent form, home advantage or overall market expectation, but the result still has to be decided on the pitch.

So, how often do Premier League favourites actually win? Research covering 1,900 Premier League matches from 2021/22 to 2025/26 found that the closing favourite won 1,063 matches, giving an overall win rate of 55.98%.

That figure shows why understanding football betting odds is important. It’s also the starting point for smarter premier league betting overall, since a single win-rate statistic means little without the context of price, probability, and sample size that follows. A strong favourite may have a much higher expected probability than a near-even contest, but draws and defeats still account for a substantial share of results. 

In this guide, we examine Premier League favourite win rates, how odds translate into winning probabilities, why favourites lose or draw, and what historical data reveals about betting on the favourite.

Premier League Favourite Win Rate at a Glance

One match was excluded from the unique-favourite calculation because two teams had the same highest closing probability.

What Is a Premier League Favourite?

A Premier League favourite is the team given the shortest odds and highest implied probability of winning a match. The market’s assessment can be influenced by several factors, not just a team’s position in the league.

For example, in Team A vs Team B, if Team A has shorter odds than Team B and the draw, Team A is considered the favourite.

Key factors that can influence which team is favoured include:

• Recent form – Strong performances can increase a team’s expected chances.
• Home advantage – Teams playing at home are often given shorter odds.
• Squad strength – Quality players and overall team depth can affect the market.
• Injuries and suspensions – Missing key players can significantly change expectations.
• Head-to-head record – Previous meetings may influence market expectations.
• League position – Important context, but it does not automatically determine the favourite.

This means a lower-ranked team can still be the favourite against a higher-ranked opponent if the betting market considers it more likely to win that particular match.

How Bookmakers Set Premier League Favourite Odds

Premier League favourite odds are not based on one factor. Understanding how premier league odds move throughout a season is just as important as knowing who’s currently favoured, since a price that looks fixed today can shift significantly by kickoff. Bookmakers analyse team performance, player availability, match conditions and betting-market movements to estimate which side is most likely to win.

The main factors influencing football betting odds include:

• Team Strength: Squad quality, individual player ability and overall depth.
• Recent Form: Recent wins, losses, goals scored and defensive performances.
• Home Advantage: Teams often receive shorter odds when playing at their home stadium.
• Injuries & Suspensions: The absence of key players can quickly change a team’s expected chances.
• Expected Line-ups: Possible rotations, tactical changes and starting XI selections can affect the price.
• Head-to-Head Record: Previous meetings can provide additional context for the market.
• Market Movement: Odds can change as bookmakers respond to new information and betting activity.

Why Favourite Odds Can Change

The favourite is not always fixed from the moment odds open. Prices can move right up until kick-off as new information becomes available.

For example, Team A may initially be favourite against Team B because of its stronger squad and recent form. If Team A’s main striker is later ruled out, its odds may lengthen as the market reassesses its chances.

This is why the closing favourite can sometimes differ from the team initially favoured when the market first opens.

Favourite Odds vs Implied Probability

Favourite odds indicate how likely a team is expected to win according to the betting market. Decimal odds can be converted into an implied probability, making it easier to understand what those prices represent.

The basic formula is:

Implied Probability = (1 ÷ Decimal Odds) × 100

For example:

• Team A at 2.00 → 50% implied probability
• Team B at 4.00 → 25% implied probability

However, these are raw implied probabilities and include the bookmaker’s margin. As a result, the probabilities across all possible outcomes can add up to more than 100%.

A no-vig probability removes this margin and gives a cleaner estimate of the market’s true expectation. This is particularly useful when comparing Premier League favourite win rates with the probabilities reflected in the closing odds.

Premier League Favourite Win Rate by Probability

The strength of the favourite matters. A team priced as a marginal favourite is very different from one carrying an 80%+ implied probability, and the data shows a strong overall relationship between higher market probability and higher favourite win rates, particularly once favourites move above 50%. 

The difference becomes particularly clear at the higher probability levels:

• Below 50%: favourites won 45.18% of matches.
• 50% or higher: favourites won 64.93%.
• 70% or higher: favourites won 79.63%.
• 80% or higher: favourites won 88.46%.

This shows that identifying the favourite alone is not enough. The probability attached to that favourite provides much more useful context. The overall pattern becomes much clearer above 50%, with favourites in higher probability bands recording substantially higher historical win rates. 

How Often Do Premier League Favourites Draw?

A Premier League favourite can fail to win in two main ways: by drawing or by losing. The available five-season dataset records 836 non-wins, but it does not provide a separate draw count, so an exact favourite draw rate cannot be calculated from this data alone.

For example, if Team A is the favourite against Team B and the match finishes 1–1, Team A is recorded as a non-winner, but the result is a draw rather than a Team B victory.

This distinction is important when analysing football betting odds and different betting markets:

• Match-winner betting: A selection on Team A loses because Team A did not win.
• Draw betting: A draw selection wins when the match finishes level.
• Double chance: A Team A or draw selection can still win despite the favourite failing to secure three points.
• Other markets: Goals, handicaps and player markets are settled independently of the match result.

Therefore, the 55.98% favourite win rate should not be interpreted as meaning that the remaining 44.02% of matches were all underdog victories. Draws account for part of those non-winning results, making them an important factor when assessing how often Premier League favourites fail to deliver.

Why Do Premier League Favourites Lose?

Being the favourite means a team has the highest estimated probability of winning, not that victory is guaranteed. Even a strong favourite can lose when match conditions, individual moments or unexpected events work against them.

Common reasons Premier League favourites lose include:

• Injuries and suspensions – Missing key players can weaken a team’s attack, midfield or defence.
• Red cards – Playing with 10 men can dramatically change the balance of a match.
• Fixture congestion – A demanding schedule can lead to fatigue, rotation and reduced performance levels.
• Tactical matchups – An opponent’s defensive shape or counter-attacking approach can limit the favourite’s strengths.
• Finishing variance – A team can create more chances but still lose if it fails to convert them.
• Goalkeeper performances – An outstanding display or costly error can have a major impact on the result.
• Early goals – Conceding first can force a favourite to change its tactics and take greater risks.
• Home and away factors – Travel, atmosphere and home advantage can influence how teams perform.

The key point is that football betting odds represent probability, not certainty. A favourite with an 80% estimated chance of winning still has a 20% combined probability of drawing or losing. This uncertainty is one reason why even heavily backed Premier League favourites can fail to win.

Do Home Favourites Win More Often Than Away Favourites?

The five-season data shows that home favourites won more often than away favourites. Among the 1,899 unique closing favourites, home favourites recorded a 57.48% win rate, compared with 53.46% for away favourites.

That represents a 3.02 percentage-point difference in favour of home favourites. Several factors can contribute to this gap, including:

• Home advantage – Familiar surroundings and crowd support can benefit the home side.
• Reduced travel demands – Home teams avoid the additional travel involved in away fixtures.
• Match conditions – Pitch familiarity and established home routines may support performance.

However, home advantage does not automatically make a favourite a better bet. The odds already reflect factors such as venue, team strength, form and player availability. The historical difference is useful for analysing EPL betting patterns, but it should not be treated as a guarantee that a home favourite will win.

Premier League Favourite Win Rate by Season

Three of the five seasons recorded favourite win rates above 55%, while 2025/26 was the only season below 50%, highlighting how favourite performance can vary from season to season.

This variation shows why a single historical percentage should not be treated as a permanent rule for future Premier League matches.

Are Premier League Favourites Profitable Bets?

A high Premier League favourite win rate does not automatically mean that backing favourites is profitable. Football betting odds determine how much a winning selection returns, so the price you take is just as important as how often the favourite wins.

Profitability can be influenced by:

• Odds and implied probability – Shorter prices offer smaller returns and require a higher strike rate to remain profitable.
• Bookmaker margin – The overround means the combined implied probabilities are typically above 100%.
• Selection strategy – Backing every favourite is different from selecting favourites based on price, form or other factors.
• Stake size – The amount wagered on each selection directly affects overall profit or loss.
• Losing streaks – Even a strategy with a positive long-term expectation can experience periods of consecutive losses.

For example, a favourite winning six out of ten matches may sound successful, but if those six wins came at very short odds, the returns could still be lower than the total amount staked.

The 55.98% historical win rate therefore shows how often unique closing favourites won across the five-season sample. It does not prove that backing every Premier League favourite would generate a profit. To assess profitability, the win rate must be considered alongside the odds, implied probability, bookmaker margin and staking approach.

Match Favourites vs Pre-Season Title Favourites

A match favourite and a pre-season Premier League title favourite represent two different betting markets. Their timeframes, objectives and odds are not directly comparable.

Because these markets measure different events over different timeframes, their historical results should be analysed separately. The 55.98% match-favourite win rate cannot be directly compared with the historical performance of pre-season title favourites.

How Often Does the Pre-Season Favourite Win the Premier League?

Historical data shows that being the pre-season Premier League favourite does not guarantee a title-winning campaign. Research covering the 2003/04 to 2019/20 seasons found that the pre-season favourite won the Premier League 6 times in 17 seasons, giving a success rate of 35.29%.

The data also shows that 16 of the 17 pre-season favourites finished in the top three, meaning 94.12% achieved a top-three finish despite only 35.29% going on to win the title.

This highlights the uncertainty involved in predicting the outcome of a 38-match Premier League season before it begins. Being the pre-season favourite indicates the market’s expectation, but it does not guarantee that the team will finish first.

Historical Premier League Title Favourites

The 2015/16 season provides one of the clearest examples of why a pre-season favourite is not guaranteed to succeed. Chelsea began the campaign as the favourite but finished 10th, while Leicester City won the title.

Who Are Favourites to Win the 2026/27 Premier League Title?

The 2026/27 title race has settled into a clear hierarchy, with one dominant favourite, one credible challenger, and a distant third contender.

Why Arsenal Are Favourites to Win This Title

Arsenal sit as the clear market favourite, priced around 8/11 to 11/10 across major sportsbooks, an implied win probability near 55-60%. The defending champions enter the season backed by continuity and squad depth, though history offers a caution: pre-season favourites have actually gone on to win the title in just 35.29% of seasons since 2003/04.

Why Manchester City Are Favourites to Win This Title

Manchester City hold a clear second place, priced between +150 and +350, translating to a 22-33% implied chance. Their recent title pedigree keeps them the most credible threat to Arsenal, with several underlying performance models placing the two sides close together in projected points.

Why Liverpool Are the Clear Third Contender

Liverpool hold the clear third spot at around 5/1, a roughly 15-17% implied chance. They remain unbeaten under new manager Andoni Iraola but have drawn three of their opening five matches, keeping them ahead of the chasing pack without threatening the top two.

Chelsea have faded well back to around 9/1 to 20/1 after a promising opening two games gave way to a three-match winless run under Xabi Alonso, while Manchester United trail even further behind both bookmakers and title models alike.

Odds shift throughout the season, so always check current prices before placing a bet.

How to Bet on Premier League Favourites

A simple approach to betting on Premier League favourites is:

1. Identify the favourite: Check which team has the shortest odds and is considered most likely to win according to current market expectations.
2. Calculate implied probability: Convert the decimal odds into an implied probability to understand how likely the market considers that team to win.
3. Assess match factors: Review recent form, injuries, expected line-ups, home advantage and other relevant information before making your betting decision.
4. Compare market expectations: Compare your estimated probability with the market probability. If your assessment is significantly higher than the probability implied by the odds, the price may warrant further consideration. 
5. Consider returns and stake: Evaluate the potential return against the risk involved, then decide your stake before placing the bet.

For example, Team A may be favourite against Team B, but being the favourite does not automatically mean its odds offer good value.

What Does the Five-Season Data Tell Us?

The five-season data reveals several useful patterns when analysing Premier League favourites:

• 55.98% overall win rate: Closing favourites won more than half of the 1,899 matches analysed.
• Below 50% probability: Favourites in this range won just 45.18% of their matches.
• 70%+ probability: Strong favourites won 79.63%, showing how win rates increase with higher market expectations.
• Home vs away: Home favourites won 57.48%, compared with 53.46% for away favourites.
• Seasonal variation: Favourite win rates ranged from 49.47% to 60.00% across the five seasons.
• Profitability: A strong win rate alone does not guarantee profit because odds, prices and staking strategies also matter.

Overall, the favourite label is only one part of the analysis. Probability, odds, match conditions and sample size provide greater context when assessing EPL betting opportunities.

Responsible Gambling

Football betting should be treated as entertainment, not a guaranteed way to make money. Set a budget before betting, only wager what you can afford to lose, and never chase losses by increasing your stakes.

Responsible betting also means taking regular breaks, avoiding betting when stressed or emotional, and seeking support if gambling starts affecting your finances or daily life.

For additional information and support, visit:

• National Council on Problem Gambling – Information and resources for people affected by problem gambling.
• Gamblers Anonymous – Support and recovery resources for people experiencing gambling-related problems.
• International Center for Responsible Gaming – Research and educational resources focused on responsible gambling.

If betting stops feeling recreational or becomes difficult to control, consider taking a break and seeking professional support.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Historical Premier League results, betting odds and win rates are based on past data and do not guarantee future outcomes. Betting involves financial risk, and results can vary significantly. Always set a budget, avoid chasing losses, and only bet money you can afford to lose.

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